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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd